Last-minute polls: Historic votes possible

The last polls taken before today’s voting looked mostly promising –maybe even history-making– for LGBT related issues and candidates.

The last poll taken in Wisconsin showed Rep. Tammy Baldwin head of Republican opponent Tommy Thompson by three points. (Public Policy Polling, November 2-3, of 1, 256 likely voters, margin of error plus or minus 2.8 points) If Baldwin wins, she will become the first openly gay person to be elected to the U.S. Senate.

In Maine, the latest poll shows 52 percent of voters ready to say Yes to Question 1, which would legalize same-sex marriage in that state. Forty-five percent say they’ll vote No, and three percent say they are undecided. (Public Policy Polling, November 1-2, 1,633 likely voters, margin of error 2.4 points)

The latest polling in Washington State on Referendum 74 is nearly identical: 52 percent say they will approve allowing same-sex marriages, 42 percent will reject, and six percent are undecided. (Public Policy Polling, November 1-3, 932 likely voters, margin of error 3.2 points) If either Maine or Washington measures pass, they will represent the first time a pro-gay position concerning same-sex marriage has won in this country.

            In Minnesota, where the question is whether to amend the state constitution to ban same-sex marriage, Proposed Amendment No. 1 was losing in the latest polling: 52 percent against, 45 percent for, three percent undecided. (Public Policy Polling, November 2-3, of 1,164 likely voters, margin of error 2.9 points)  If voters there reject Amendment 1, it will be the second state –out of 32– to do reject an anti-gay measure to ban same-sex marriage. (Arizona voters rejected such an amendment in 2006, but then passed a similar amendment in 2008.)

            Ballot Question 6 in Maryland, which would approve the marriage equality law passed by the state legislature this year, appears to have the toughest hurdle going into Tuesdays voting. The Baltimore Sun reported October 27 that the race is a “dead heat,” after holding a 10-point lead a month ago. While voters will choose either Yes or No, the Sun reported 47 percent would vote “illegal,” 46 percent legal, six percent undecided. (Baltimore Sun, October 28, no indication of number polled or margin of error)

            Both and predict the Senate and the House will retain their current partisan leadership. And both plus the Pew Research Center’s latest polls predicted that President Obama will win re-election. But the final polling by CNN,, NBC/Wall Street Journal, and ABC/Washington Post showed Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney tied.


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